Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."