Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.